US Bottom Fishing
Many property buyers, investment and lifestyle alike, are looking towards the
US, and especially Florida, and want to know when the market will bottom out. We’ve been listening to what the
experts say and, the fact is, they just don’t know!
Zillow’s latest Home Price Expectations Survey suggests that prices will fall a little further – 1 or 2 per cent -
until Q4 2012 to Q1 2012. Prices should then rise by some 3 per cent between 2013 and 2016. But some Zillow
panellists are saying prices may rise by as much as 18 per cent by 2016. Others predict declines of 1 to 2 per cent
over that time!
Barclays Capital analyst Stephen Kim suggests looking at the number of distressed properties in a particular
location. ‘This is the most important trend in the housing industry right now and we are amazed at how little
attention it has been getting from the media and the street.’ Of course, the bottom line is that you will want to
buy in before prices start moving up and a good monitor is to watch for when builders start building again. They
won’t build whilst you can bag distressed properties at below build cost. More to come on this soon.